data temp;
input YEAR TEMP;
datalines; 
 1880      -.12
 1881      -.13
 1882      -.01
 1883      -.05
 1884      -.42
 1885      -.23
 1886      -.26
 1887      -.46
 1888      -.23
 1889       .06
 1890      -.21
 1891      -.55
 1892      -.40
 1893      -.40
 1894      -.32
 1895      -.32
 1896      -.27
 1897      -.15
 1898      -.20
 1899      -.25
 1900      -.06
 1901      -.04
 1902      -.30
 1903      -.35
 1904      -.42
 1905      -.25
 1906      -.15
 1907      -.40
 1908      -.30
 1909      -.31
 1910      -.20
 1911      -.25
 1912      -.33
 1913      -.28
 1914      -.02
 1915       .05
 1916      -.20
 1917      -.46
 1918      -.33
 1919      -.08
 1920      -.17
 1921      -.04
 1922      -.09
 1923      -.16
 1924      -.11
 1925      -.15
 1926       .04
 1927      -.05
 1928       .00
 1929      -.22
 1930      -.03
 1931       .02
 1932       .04
 1933      -.11
 1934       .05
 1935      -.08
 1936       .02
 1937       .12
 1938       .15
 1939      -.02
 1940       .14
 1941       .11
 1942       .10
 1943       .06
 1944       .11
 1945      -.01
 1946       .01
 1947       .12
 1948      -.03
 1949      -.09
 1950      -.17
 1951      -.02
 1952       .03
 1953       .12
 1954      -.09
 1955      -.08
 1956      -.18
 1957       .08
 1958       .10
 1959       .05
 1960      -.02
 1961       .10
 1962       .05
 1963       .02
 1964      -.25
 1965      -.15
 1966      -.08
 1967      -.02
 1968      -.09
 1969       .00
 1970       .04
 1971      -.10
 1972      -.05
 1973       .18
 1974      -.06
 1975      -.02
 1976      -.21
 1977       .16
 1978       .07
 1979       .14
 1980       .28
 1981       .40
 1982       .09
 1983       .34
 1984       .14
 1985       .12
 1986       .19
 1987       .35
 1988       .39
 1989       .26
 1990       .48
 1991       .44
 1992       .15
 1993       .19
 1994       .32
 1995       .46
 1996       .39
 1997       .40
 1998       .71
 1999       .46
 2000       .41
 2001       .57
 2002       .68
 2003       .67
 2004       .60
 2005       .76
 2006       .65
 ;;

data temp;
  set temp;
  year_1970=0;
  if year > 1970 then year_1970 = year - 1970;
run;

proc gplot data = temp;
   title "Raw data";
   plot temp*year;
run;

proc reg data = temp;
    model temp = year year_1970;
	output out=temp_out p=p r=r;
run;

proc gplot data = temp_out;
   title "Raw data v fitted values";
   plot temp*year;
   plot2 p*year;
run;

proc gplot data = temp_out;
   title "Residuals";
   plot r*year;
run;


proc arima data=temp_out; 
  identify var=r outcov=acf noprint; 
run;

PROC GPLOT data=acf uniform;
  plot corr*lag;
run;

proc arima data=temp_out;
   title "AR(1) fit";
   identify var=r noprint;
   estimate p=1 q=0;
run;

proc arima data=temp_out;
   title "MA(1) fit";
   identify var=r noprint;
   estimate p=0 q=1;
run;

proc arima data=temp_out;
   title "ARMA(1,1) fit";
   identify var=r noprint;
   estimate p=1 q=1;
run;