<>   Education:             B.S. in  Agriculture( Hons), University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia.           M. S. and Ph. D in Biological Statistics, Cornell University,Ithaca, New York USA.. Research Interests:             Sampling Theory, Survey Methodology, Angler Surveys, Statistical and Population Ecology. Pollock Office Hours: M 1.30-2.30 and Tu 2.30--3.30 or by appt. TA Office Hours: W 10-12 Bureau of Mines Tutorial Room Class Information Grading Homeworks               20 Exam  1                     20   In Class Feb 5 2009 Exam  2                     20   In Class Mar 26 2009 Group Projects          20    Indiv Projects            20     TOTAL                    100 Group Projects Groups of 4-5 students as listed below will prepare a lecture on a topic and present it at the end of the semester. The lecture should be 60 mins allowing 15 mins for questions from the rest of the class. I suggest you have one rehearsal of your lecture to get the timing of material correct. The ppt slides for each lecture will be posted to the webpage as a pdf so that everyone will have a record of this material. Groups may decide to use handouts as well if they would like but their use is not required. Preliminary Meetings of groups will be in class but it will be up to you to co-ordinate getting all tasks accomplished outside of class. Suggest the groups try and make linkages to other group topics, for example, how is questionnaire design influenced by contact method or sensitivity of the topic? Notes- Lecturer is happy to help the groups and meet with them if needed. Attendance at all presentations  is compulsory unless you get an exemption from me for an emergency. Topic 1- Questionnaire Design -April 9 Group Members- Campbell, Couchon, Garland, Herbert. Topic 2 -Mail Surveys-April 14 Group Members- Dove, Kamal, Lindahl, McRimmon. Topic 3-Email and Web Surveys-April 16 Group Members- Nguyen, Oxendine, Hales, Rice. Topic 4- Telephone Surveys-April 21 Group Members- Jackson, Likshis, Hedges, Sheppard. Topic 5- Sensitive Subject Surveys-April 23 Group Members- Mack, Smith, Strader, Wu. Individual  Projects Individual Projects Information Writing Guidelines for Individual Projects Lecture Information and Handouts Lecture 1 Jan 8 Introduction    Lecture 1 pdf Lecture 2 Jan 13 Simple Random Sampling -Estimation    Lecture 2 pdf    Reading: Ch1, 2.1-2.3 Lecture 3 Jan 15 Simple Random Sampling - Confidence Intervals    Lecture 3 Handout     Reading: Ch 2.4, 3, 5,1-5.2 Lecture 4 Jan 22 Simple Random Sampling - Sample Size    Reading: Ch 2.6-2.7, 4.1-4.3, 5.3 Lecture 5 Jan 27 Simple Random Sampling-Subpopulations Estimation    Lecture 5 Handout    Reading: Ch 5.6 Lecture 6 Jan 29 Hunter Survey Design and Analysis Questions    Lecture 6 Handout    Questionnaire Lecture 7 Feb 3 Unequal Probability Sampling    Lecture 7 Handout    Reading: Ch 6.1, 6.2, 6.5. Lecture 8 Feb 5 Test 1 in Class     Exam 1 Answer Key Lecture 9 Feb 10 Unequal Probability Sampling Continues Lecture 10 Feb 12 Ratio Estimation     Topic Linkages     Reading: Ch 7.1,7.6,7.7 Lecture 11 Feb 17 Regression Estimation     Reading: Ch 8.1,8.3 Lecture 12 Feb 19 Ratio and Regression Estimation Conclusion, Begin Stratified Random Sampling      Ratio and Regn Summary Notes      Accuracy of Medical Claims (Optional) Lecture 13 Feb 24 Stratified Random Sampling       Stratification Motivation      Stratification example      Reading: Ch 11.1-11.6 Lecture 14 Feb 26 Stratified Random Sampling Stratified Sampling Summary Notes(Final) Lecture 15 Mar 10 Cluster and Two-Stage Sampling Lecture 16 Mar 12 Cluster and Two-Stage Sampling      Reading: Ch 12.1,12.3-12.5, Ch 13.1, 13.4.      Cluster and Two-Stage Sampling Lecture Notes (Updated) Lecture 17 Mar 17 Systematic Random Sampling       Reading: Ch 12.4 plus Class Notes. Lecture 18 Mar 19 Capture-Recapture Models       Reading: Class Notes. Lecture 19 Mar 24 Double and Two Phase Sampling       Class Notes       Reading: Ch 14.1, 14.2, 14.3, 14.5 Lecture 20 Mar 26 Exam 2 In Class.       Exam-Answer Sheet Lecture 21 Mar 31 Dual Frame Survey Designs       Reading: Class Notes. Lecture 22 Apr 2   Gordon Brown Lecture       Reading: Class Notes. Lecture 23 Apr 7  Introduction to Survey Design       Sampling Topic Linkages       Reading: Class Notes, Imputation, Weighting, Variances Lecture 24 Apr   9 Group 1- Questionnaire Design Lecture 25 Apr 14 Group 2 -Mail Surveys Lecture 26 Apr 16 Group 3-Email and Web Surveys Lecture 27 Apr 21 Group 4- Telephone Surveys Lecture 28 Apr 23 Group 5- Sensitive Subject Surveys Question of the Week Jan 15- Web and email surveys, Pros and Cons. I thought we had a very good discussion. Some Key pluses were the speed with which data could be collected and analysed, and the convenience to the repondents. Some key negatives were not everyone having access to the internet, and how to see that a probability sample could be obtained. To obtain a probability sample one would need the email address of every member of the population.There were many other good points raised. We will come back to email and web surveys later in the semester. Jan 22- Web or Email surveys may also be subject to significant nonresponse as for other contact modes (mail, telephone). The question has two parts. First what influence might nonreponse have on survey estimates of population paramters? Second how might you be able to design the web survey to reduce nonreponse rate? Key points raised were first that substantial biaes may be induced in estimates by nonreponse. Second we discussed ways to reduce nonrepose rates by: improved question wording, question ordering, shorter questionnaire length; using incentives such as small gifts or entering respondents in a lottery. Response rate is also higher if the survey agency has high prestige and credibility. For some populations some respondents may need to be assisted with access to the internet. Jan 29- The Hunter Survey discussed later today in class used a mail survey. Why do you think they didnt use a Telephone or a Web contact to carry out the survey? Also Quickly read over the survey notes before the class (Lecture 6 Handout, Questionaire). Once you have read the write up of the survey are there any problems with question 2 structure or wording? We discussed this in detail in the class. Feb 5- Exam so No Question Feb 12- When sampling plant populations plots or areas of land are chosen from all possible plots in the study region. Simple random sampling does not work very well if the plant of interest is rare. Suggest some alternative sampling designs that might work better. We came up with a few good ideas. The plants may be clustered. Using a pilot survey to find denser areas could allow stratification to be used. For other rare items it was suggested that constructing a special sampling frame may be worth the cost. The text covers Network(15) and Adaptive(23-26) sampling which relate to this question. Feb 19-What is the difference between stratified random sampling (Ch 11) which we begin today and subpopulation estimation with simple random sampling which we considered earlier (Ch 5.6)? We discussed in class. Feb 26- Will we survive spring break (:-))? Why do you think stratified random sampling is so much more widely used than the regression estimators. Both are used to increase precision of estimates over the precision achieved under simple random sampling? We discussed that the regression estimators require a stronger set of model assumptions (linear relationship). Mar 12- This question involves - 1. What is the distinction between cluster and stratified sampling? 2. Is stratified sampling generally more or less efficient than simple random sampling for the same sample size? 3. Is cluster sampling generally more or less efficient than simple random sampling for the same sample size? Homework Assignments Policy- Each homework set will be graded out of 10 by the TA. Without a medical reason late homework accepted only 1 class late with a penalty of 1 pt if handed in late. Homework 1 Due Jan 22 Homework 2 Due Jan 27 Homework 1 and 2 Handout Homework 3 Due Feb 3 Homework 3 Handout Homework 4 Due Feb 17 Homework 4 Handout Homework 5 Due Feb 24 Q2 P85, Q1 P98 Homework 6 Due Mar 10 Q1, Q2 P128 Homework Set 7 Due Mar 17 Homework 7 Handout Homework Set 8 Due Mar 24 Homework 8 Handout Homework Sets 9 &10 Due April 2 & 7. Homework 9 &10 Handout Some Interesting Surveys (Please send More) Research at RTI (http://www.rti.org) on Sensitive Topics Much of the research RTI has conducted over the last 10 years has focused on sensitive behaviors. During this period, we have conducted surveys concerning HIV risk behaviors, sexual activity, illicit drug use, abusive situations, and abortion. We have found that respondents are concerned about the confidentiality of their responses, about reporting their behaviors to an interviewer, and about reporting their behaviors in their homes, where other household members might overhear. RTI has used the findings of these and other studies to improve the quality of the data we collect on sensitive topics. Since 1990, we have conducted over 100,000 interviews involving sensitive topics and have used our research to develop and implement methodologies designed to obtain complete and accurate data, including self-administered questionnaires, computer-assisted interviewing tools, and neutral-site interviews. New Obama Political Poll Methods Link Religion  Survey N& O More Detail Young Obama Voters Flummox Pollsters New N & O Article