/* -------------------------------------------------------------- | NCSU campuswide energy consumption 1979-80 school year. | | Indicators for workdays and class days. | ---------------------------------------------------------------*/ goptions reset=all; options pagesize=55 ls=64; axis1 label = (angle=90 font=centb h=1.2); %let model = temp tempsq class work s c; options symbolgen; proc format; value work 0="Holiday" 1="Work" 2="Class"; data energy; input DAY TEMP DEMAND T WORK CLASS DATE :date7. Y 67 ; TEMPSQ=(TEMP-65)**2; S=sin(2*3.14159*date/365); C = cos(2*3.14159*date/365); Jan2 = (date="02jan80"d); format date date7.; WC = work+class; title "NCSU energy demand"; cval="green"; if WC=1 then cval="red"; if WC=2 then cval="cyan"; * 10 20 30 40 50 60 123456789 123456789 123456789 123456789 123456789 123456789 123456789; cards; 1 83 8217 1 0 0 01JUL79 2 2 87 12545 2 1 1 02JUL79 1 3 85 12649 3 1 1 03JUL79 1 4 85 9409 4 0 0 04JUL79 0 5 80 12001 5 1 1 05JUL79 1 6 78 11457 6 1 1 06JUL79 1 7 75 8476 7 0 0 07JUL79 2 8 82 8398 1 0 0 08JUL79 0 9 82 12649 2 1 1 09JUL79 1 10 79 12701 3 1 1 10JUL79 1 11 84 12986 4 1 1 11JUL79 1 12 89 13686 5 1 1 12JUL79 1 13 88 13841 6 1 1 13JUL79 1 14 88 9487 7 0 0 14JUL79 0 15 87 9331 1 0 0 15JUL79 0 16 89 13712 2 1 1 16JUL79 1 17 89 13815 3 1 1 17JUL79 1 18 77 13297 4 1 1 18JUL79 1 19 81 13012 5 1 1 19JUL79 1 20 81 12753 6 1 1 20JUL79 1 21 82 9228 7 0 0 21JUL79 0 22 83 8994 1 0 0 22JUL79 0 23 80 13167 2 1 1 23JUL79 1 24 82 13427 3 1 1 24JUL79 1 25 85 13504 4 1 1 25JUL79 1 26 82 13245 5 1 1 26JUL79 1 27 86 13141 6 1 1 27JUL79 1 28 87 9564 7 0 0 28JUL79 0 29 88 9461 1 0 0 29JUL79 0 30 79 13401 2 1 1 30JUL79 1 31 89 13530 3 1 1 31JUL79 1 1 90 14100 4 1 1 01AUG79 2 2 90 14282 5 1 1 02AUG79 1 3 86 13841 6 1 1 03AUG79 1 4 87 9409 7 0 0 04AUG79 0 5 89 9253 1 0 0 05AUG79 0 6 90 13660 2 1 1 06AUG79 1 7 90 13971 3 1 1 07AUG79 2 8 94 13789 4 1 1 08AUG79 1 9 93 13271 5 1 0 09AUG79 1 10 95 13375 6 1 0 10AUG79 1 11 90 9461 7 0 0 11AUG79 0 12 74 7880 1 0 0 12AUG79 0 13 79 11275 2 1 0 13AUG79 1 14 84 11871 3 1 0 14AUG79 1 15 82 11897 4 1 0 15AUG79 1 16 77 11223 5 1 0 16AUG79 1 17 79 11068 6 1 0 17AUG79 1 18 84 8243 7 0 0 18AUG79 0 19 90 8424 1 0 0 19AUG79 0 20 89 13427 2 1 0 20AUG79 1 21 89 13686 3 1 0 21AUG79 1 22 80 12934 4 1 0 22AUG79 1 23 83 14152 5 1 1 23AUG79 1 24 85 13997 6 1 1 24AUG79 1 25 87 10083 7 0 0 25AUG79 0 26 88 10212 1 0 0 26AUG79 0 27 84 15293 2 1 1 27AUG79 1 28 96 15137 3 1 1 28AUG79 1 29 85 15034 4 1 1 29AUG79 1 30 90 14956 5 1 1 30AUG79 1 31 87 14412 6 1 1 31AUG79 1 1 84 9616 7 0 0 01SEP79 2 2 84 9305 1 0 0 02SEP79 0 3 88 9850 2 0 0 03SEP79 0 4 80 14982 3 1 1 04SEP79 1 5 74 14878 4 1 1 05SEP79 1 6 88 15085 5 1 1 06SEP79 1 7 85 14619 6 1 1 07SEP79 2 8 79 9901 7 0 0 08SEP79 0 9 75 9176 1 0 0 09SEP79 0 10 79 13452 2 1 1 10SEP79 1 11 81 13867 3 1 1 11SEP79 1 12 81 14412 4 1 1 12SEP79 1 13 81 14723 5 1 1 13SEP79 1 14 85 15215 6 1 1 14SEP79 1 15 75 9772 7 0 0 15SEP79 0 16 75 9331 1 0 0 16SEP79 0 17 80 13090 2 1 1 17SEP79 1 18 82 13349 3 1 1 18SEP79 1 19 85 13893 4 1 1 19SEP79 1 20 74 13452 5 1 1 20SEP79 1 21 78 14126 6 1 1 21SEP79 1 22 85 10472 7 0 0 22SEP79 0 23 66 9098 1 0 0 23SEP79 0 24 62 12701 2 1 1 24SEP79 1 25 62 12597 3 1 1 25SEP79 1 26 70 12779 4 1 1 26SEP79 1 27 76 13064 5 1 1 27SEP79 1 28 79 13867 6 1 1 28SEP79 1 29 73 10575 7 0 0 29SEP79 0 30 73 9746 1 0 0 30SEP79 0 1 80 14075 2 1 1 01OCT79 2 2 80 14100 3 1 1 02OCT79 1 3 73 13167 4 1 1 03OCT79 1 4 76 13167 5 1 1 04OCT79 1 5 66 12934 6 1 1 05OCT79 1 6 69 8631 7 0 0 06OCT79 0 7 70 8605 1 0 0 07OCT79 2 8 71 12493 2 1 1 08OCT79 1 9 80 13038 3 1 1 09OCT79 1 10 64 12312 4 1 1 10OCT79 1 11 54 11794 5 1 1 11OCT79 1 12 75 12027 6 1 1 12OCT79 1 13 67 8191 7 0 0 13OCT79 0 14 59 7543 1 0 0 14OCT79 0 15 67 10783 2 1 0 15OCT79 1 16 75 11146 3 1 0 16OCT79 1 17 78 12986 4 1 1 17OCT79 1 18 80 13167 5 1 1 18OCT79 1 19 80 12649 6 1 1 19OCT79 1 20 81 9694 7 0 0 20OCT79 0 21 82 9461 1 0 0 21OCT79 0 22 80 14075 2 1 1 22OCT79 1 23 77 13764 3 1 1 23OCT79 1 24 63 12493 4 1 1 24OCT79 1 25 60 12623 5 1 1 25OCT79 1 26 59 12131 6 1 1 26OCT79 1 27 58 8709 7 0 0 27OCT79 0 28 74 8657 1 0 0 28OCT79 0 29 72 13064 2 1 1 29OCT79 1 30 72 12908 3 1 1 30OCT79 1 31 69 12701 4 1 1 31OCT79 1 1 73 12856 5 1 1 01NOV79 2 2 72 13090 6 1 1 02NOV79 1 3 61 8813 7 0 0 03NOV79 0 4 56 8346 1 0 0 04NOV79 0 5 57 11949 2 1 1 05NOV79 1 6 61 11949 3 1 1 06NOV79 1 7 60 11845 4 1 1 07NOV79 2 8 60 11897 5 1 1 08NOV79 1 9 70 11638 6 1 1 09NOV79 1 10 75 8709 7 0 0 10NOV79 0 11 63 8217 1 0 0 11NOV79 0 12 47 11638 2 1 1 12NOV79 1 13 50 11742 3 1 1 13NOV79 1 14 48 11612 4 1 1 14NOV79 1 15 51 11431 5 1 1 15NOV79 1 16 58 11249 6 1 1 16NOV79 1 17 65 7880 7 0 0 17NOV79 0 18 72 8139 1 0 0 18NOV79 0 19 71 12105 2 1 1 19NOV79 1 20 74 11975 3 1 1 20NOV79 1 21 72 11223 4 1 1 21NOV79 1 22 71 6610 5 0 0 22NOV79 0 23 74 7128 6 0 0 23NOV79 0 24 75 7284 7 0 0 24NOV79 0 25 72 7543 1 0 0 25NOV79 0 26 69 12105 2 1 1 26NOV79 1 27 66 11975 3 1 1 27NOV79 1 28 62 11794 4 1 1 28NOV79 1 29 42 11223 5 1 1 29NOV79 1 30 40 11094 6 1 1 30NOV79 1 1 49 7828 7 0 0 01DEC79 2 2 39 7569 1 0 0 02DEC79 0 3 37 11146 2 1 1 03DEC79 1 4 54 11249 3 1 1 04DEC79 1 5 59 11483 4 1 1 05DEC79 1 6 51 11612 5 1 1 06DEC79 1 7 54 11094 6 1 1 07DEC79 2 8 53 7880 7 0 0 08DEC79 0 9 45 7620 1 0 0 09DEC79 0 10 60 11016 2 1 1 10DEC79 1 11 65 10964 3 1 1 11DEC79 1 12 70 11094 4 1 1 12DEC79 1 13 69 11405 5 1 1 13DEC79 1 14 58 10912 6 1 1 14DEC79 1 15 48 7620 7 0 0 15DEC79 0 16 57 7361 1 0 0 16DEC79 0 17 44 10420 2 1 1 17DEC79 1 18 44 10161 3 1 1 18DEC79 1 19 57 9539 4 1 1 19DEC79 1 20 40 9228 5 1 0 20DEC79 1 21 41 8968 6 1 0 21DEC79 1 22 50 5806 7 0 0 22DEC79 0 23 58 5314 1 0 0 23DEC79 0 24 69 5547 2 0 0 24DEC79 0 25 53 5443 3 0 0 25DEC79 0 26 55 5651 4 0 0 26DEC79 0 27 56 5754 5 0 0 27DEC79 0 28 55 5728 6 0 0 28DEC79 0 29 58 5780 7 0 0 29DEC79 0 30 54 5417 1 0 0 30DEC79 0 31 53 8139 2 1 0 31DEC79 1 1 44 5651 3 0 0 01JAN80 2 2 52 5625 4 1 0 02JAN80 1 3 48 9000 5 1 0 03JAN80 1 4 39 9253 6 1 0 04JAN80 1 5 38 6402 7 0 0 05JAN80 0 6 43 6247 1 0 0 06JAN80 0 7 48 10161 2 1 1 07JAN80 2 8 47 10342 3 1 1 08JAN80 1 9 41 10860 4 1 1 09JAN80 1 10 43 10912 5 1 1 10JAN80 1 11 62 11094 6 1 1 11JAN80 1 12 52 7828 7 0 0 12JAN80 0 13 38 7828 1 0 0 13JAN80 0 14 48 11249 2 1 1 14JAN80 1 15 62 11172 3 1 1 15JAN80 1 16 55 11172 4 1 1 16JAN80 1 17 49 11197 5 1 1 17JAN80 1 18 50 11223 6 1 1 18JAN80 1 19 59 7776 7 0 0 19JAN80 0 20 58 7620 1 0 0 20JAN80 0 21 54 11249 2 1 1 21JAN80 1 22 54 10809 3 1 1 22JAN80 1 23 54 10498 4 1 1 23JAN80 1 24 50 10498 5 1 1 24JAN80 1 25 60 10886 6 1 1 25JAN80 1 26 51 7517 7 0 0 26JAN80 0 27 42 7517 1 0 0 27JAN80 0 28 52 11405 2 1 1 28JAN80 1 29 45 11457 3 1 1 29JAN80 1 30 40 11301 4 1 1 30JAN80 1 31 30 10731 5 1 1 31JAN80 1 1 28 10653 6 1 1 01FEB80 2 2 31 7517 7 0 0 02FEB80 0 3 32 7284 1 0 0 03FEB80 0 4 31 10783 2 1 1 04FEB80 1 5 38 11120 3 1 1 05FEB80 1 6 32 10653 4 1 1 06FEB80 1 7 39 11146 5 1 1 07FEB80 2 8 42 10783 6 1 1 08FEB80 1 9 33 7620 7 0 0 09FEB80 0 10 36 7387 1 0 0 10FEB80 0 11 44 11068 2 1 1 11FEB80 1 12 41 11146 3 1 1 12FEB80 1 13 45 11172 4 1 1 13FEB80 1 14 56 11172 5 1 1 14FEB80 1 15 61 10886 6 1 1 15FEB80 1 16 52 8035 7 0 0 16FEB80 0 17 35 7543 1 0 0 17FEB80 0 18 44 11249 2 1 1 18FEB80 1 19 53 11094 3 1 1 19FEB80 1 20 61 11094 4 1 1 20FEB80 1 21 66 11275 5 1 1 21FEB80 1 22 70 11042 6 1 1 22FEB80 1 23 77 7983 7 0 0 23FEB80 0 24 68 7595 1 0 0 24FEB80 0 25 49 11508 2 1 1 25FEB80 1 26 40 11301 3 1 1 26FEB80 1 27 52 11094 4 1 1 27FEB80 1 28 63 11120 5 1 1 28FEB80 1 29 52 10783 6 1 1 29FEB80 1 1 27 6428 7 0 0 01MAR80 2 2 19 5495 1 0 0 02MAR80 0 3 39 7413 2 1 0 03MAR80 1 4 50 9383 3 1 0 04MAR80 1 5 50 9876 4 1 0 05MAR80 1 6 56 9616 5 1 0 06MAR80 1 7 63 9746 6 1 0 07MAR80 2 8 63 6895 7 0 0 08MAR80 0 9 67 6947 1 0 0 09MAR80 0 10 66 11431 2 1 1 10MAR80 1 11 53 11146 3 1 1 11MAR80 1 12 43 11197 4 1 1 12MAR80 1 13 36 11275 5 1 1 13MAR80 1 14 54 11094 6 1 1 14MAR80 1 15 62 7724 7 0 0 15MAR80 0 16 67 7595 1 0 0 16MAR80 0 17 68 11845 2 1 1 17MAR80 1 18 57 11483 3 1 1 18MAR80 1 19 66 11275 4 1 1 19MAR80 1 20 64 11353 5 1 1 20MAR80 1 21 68 11586 6 1 1 21MAR80 1 22 60 7932 7 0 0 22MAR80 0 23 59 7802 1 0 0 23MAR80 0 24 58 11638 2 1 1 24MAR80 1 25 67 11379 3 1 1 25MAR80 1 26 56 11223 4 1 1 26MAR80 1 27 61 11094 5 1 1 27MAR80 1 28 58 10964 6 1 1 28MAR80 1 29 70 7828 7 0 0 29MAR80 0 30 59 7569 1 0 0 30MAR80 0 31 65 11690 2 1 1 31MAR80 1 1 66 11223 3 1 1 01APR80 2 2 76 11742 4 1 1 02APR80 1 3 78 11508 5 1 1 03APR80 1 4 83 11612 6 1 1 04APR80 1 5 63 6895 7 0 0 05APR80 0 6 70 6454 1 0 0 06APR80 0 7 61 7335 2 0 0 07APR80 2 8 72 11457 3 1 1 08APR80 1 9 81 12338 4 1 1 09APR80 1 10 76 11845 5 1 1 10APR80 1 11 78 11508 6 1 1 11APR80 1 12 79 8476 7 0 0 12APR80 0 13 69 8528 1 0 0 13APR80 0 14 75 12934 2 1 1 14APR80 1 15 59 11820 3 1 1 15APR80 1 16 66 11638 4 1 1 16APR80 1 17 65 11431 5 1 1 17APR80 1 18 76 11353 6 1 1 18APR80 1 19 77 8113 7 0 0 19APR80 0 20 78 8113 1 0 0 20APR80 0 21 79 11845 2 1 1 21APR80 1 22 81 12286 3 1 1 22APR80 1 23 93 13375 4 1 1 23APR80 1 24 91 13712 5 1 1 24APR80 1 25 87 13504 6 1 1 25APR80 1 26 75 9383 7 0 0 26APR80 0 27 81 9020 1 0 0 27APR80 0 28 68 11483 2 1 1 28APR80 1 29 71 11534 3 1 1 29APR80 1 30 66 11379 4 1 1 30APR80 1 1 70 11327 5 1 1 01MAY80 2 2 77 11612 6 1 1 02MAY80 1 3 79 8605 7 0 0 03MAY80 0 4 84 8113 1 0 0 04MAY80 0 5 86 12156 2 1 1 05MAY80 1 6 85 12079 3 1 1 06MAY80 1 7 86 11845 4 1 1 07MAY80 2 8 67 10627 5 1 0 08MAY80 1 9 68 10109 6 1 0 09MAY80 1 10 69 8787 7 0 0 10MAY80 0 11 84 6791 1 0 0 11MAY80 0 12 90 11457 2 1 0 12MAY80 1 13 89 12234 3 1 0 13MAY80 1 14 85 12079 4 1 0 14MAY80 1 15 72 10809 5 1 0 15MAY80 1 16 77 10549 6 1 0 16MAY80 1 17 78 7258 7 0 0 17MAY80 0 18 86 7491 1 0 0 18MAY80 0 19 86 12260 2 1 0 19MAY80 1 20 73 12208 3 1 1 20MAY80 1 21 82 12156 4 1 1 21MAY80 1 22 85 12493 5 1 1 22MAY80 1 23 84 12675 6 1 1 23MAY80 1 24 80 8605 7 0 0 24MAY80 0 25 80 8165 1 0 0 25MAY80 0 26 78 11379 2 1 1 26MAY80 1 27 79 11534 3 1 1 27MAY80 1 28 86 12338 4 1 1 28MAY80 1 29 90 13141 5 1 1 29MAY80 1 30 87 13193 6 1 1 30MAY80 1 31 87 8994 7 0 0 31MAY80 0 1 88 8735 1 0 0 01JUN80 2 2 90 13556 2 1 1 02JUN80 1 3 96 13764 3 1 1 03JUN80 1 4 87 13556 4 1 1 04JUN80 1 5 83 12675 5 1 1 05JUN80 1 6 85 12131 6 1 1 06JUN80 1 7 89 9253 7 0 0 07JUN80 2 8 95 9383 1 0 0 08JUN80 0 9 77 12079 2 1 1 09JUN80 1 10 86 12493 3 1 1 10JUN80 1 11 82 12519 4 1 1 11JUN80 1 12 80 12208 5 1 1 12JUN80 1 13 80 11742 6 1 1 13JUN80 1 14 85 8631 7 0 0 14JUN80 0 15 96 8631 1 0 0 15JUN80 0 16 94 13971 2 1 1 16JUN80 1 17 82 12442 3 1 1 17JUN80 1 18 72 11975 4 1 1 18JUN80 1 19 84 12468 5 1 1 19JUN80 1 20 88 12753 6 1 1 20JUN80 1 21 81 8580 7 0 0 21JUN80 0 22 88 8605 1 0 0 22JUN80 0 23 88 13478 2 1 1 23JUN80 1 24 78 13064 3 1 1 24JUN80 1 25 74 12908 4 1 1 25JUN80 1 26 75 12545 5 1 0 26JUN80 1 27 92 12856 6 1 0 27JUN80 1 28 96 9098 7 0 0 28JUN80 0 29 96 8942 1 0 0 29JUN80 0 30 88 13789 2 1 1 30JUN80 1 ; PROC GPLOT data=energy; PLOT DEMAND*TEMP=WC/legend; PLOT DEMAND*DATE=WC/legend; symbol1 v=dot i=none; format wc work.; proc g3d; scatter date*temp=demand/shape="balloon" size=.8 color=cval; Title "Energy demand at NCSU"; PROC AUTOREG data=energy; MODEL DEMAND = &model /NLAG=15 BACKSTEP DWPROB; output out=out1 residual=r residualm=rm pm=pm; ** day of week adds about .0021 to R**2 ***; ** residualm is residual from just X part **; proc gplot; plot rm*date=WC/vref=0 vaxis=axis1; symbol1 v=dot i=needle c=red; symbol2 v=dot i=needle c=black; symbol3 v=dot i=needle c=blue; title h=1 "Inputs: &model"; title2 "Need better model?"; ** Try an ARIMA model **; Proc ARIMA; identify var=demand crosscor=(&model) noprint; e input = (&model) p=1 q=(1,7,14) ml; f lead=0 out=outARIMA id=date interval=day; run; proc gplot data=outARIMA; plot residual*date/vaxis=axis1; title2 "ARIMA residuals (shocks)"; proc g3d data=out1; scatter date*temp=pm/shape="balloon" color=cval noneedle; title2 "AUTOREG Structural Model"; run; * Large negative residual Jan 2 (technically a work day) ; proc print data=outARIMA; where residual<-1500; run;